Current levels of ice melt have already created new shipping lanes and increased access to Arctic ports. As these passages and ports become poised to facilitate large-scale ship traffic — for all kinds of vessels, including cargo, naval, scientific, transport, and cruise ships — the planet will enter a new frontier of crisis.

While the prospect of shorter routes might sound beneficial on the surface, it’s also the sign of a profound environmental shift that’s quickly sinking the planet into deep disaster. Here’s what you need to know about Arctic sea ice melt and what will happen if new Arctic shipping routes become a reality.

How Continued Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Change Current Shipping Routes

As global temperatures rise, Arctic sea ice is quickly diminishing — so quickly, that the Arctic could have ice-free summers by 2035. If this happens, it will create larger Arctic waterways that allow for shorter maritime shipping routes between oceans and continents, eliminating thousands of miles from trips that would ordinarily pass through the Panama or Suez canals. These waterways include the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP), also referred to as the Arctic Passage, which are likely to become widely used shipping lanes.

This trend may initially appear advantageous for global maritime navigation, as these emerging routes could offer lower transportation costs due to reduced transit times and fuel consumption, assuming that current safety and insurance-related obstacles could be overcome. However, the prospect of large-scale Arctic traffic also has far-reaching consequences likely to spell disaster in multiple already-fragile and volatile arenas, including national security.

Geopolitical Implications

As Arctic sea ice melts and passages become more navigable, two types of international conflicts will emerge. These conflicts are likely to be heightened for two main reasons:

• The Arctic is thought to contain about 13% of the world’s oil and 30% of its natural gas, making it a target for exploitation by or through the cooperation of any nation that can lay claim to it.

• Nations that can claim ownership of Arctic waterways will gain major advantages from controlling these passages in terms of matters like security, tourism, and scientific research.

Sources of Conflict

First, Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea states that coastal nations bordering the Arctic hold regulatory power over areas that are covered in ice for the majority of the year. The loss of this ice could legally complicate countries’ claims over and rights in parts of the Arctic Ocean, giving rise to territorial disputes and confusion around security protocols. In addition to creating or heightening international tensions, this could make it easier for criminals to use these waterways for illegal fishing or human and drug trafficking. 

Second, the Arctic is increasingly an area of geopolitical competition between the bordering US, China, and Russia, the three most powerful nations in the world. Both China and Russia have serious long-standing (and currently heightening) political disputes with the US. Recently, China and Russia have been cooperating in various regards, a tentative alliance that is causing security concerns for Americans. This may lead to an increased military presence in the Arctic from all three nations, exacerbating pre-existing tensions to the point of armed conflict.

Accelerated Global Warming and Heightened Climate Crisis

Thanks to its historically large quantities of ice, the Arctic region provides a considerable portion of Earth’s overall albedo (ability to reflect sunlight and stabilize temperatures). As the Arctic sea ice cover melts, it uncovers dark, heat-absorbing water, effectively accelerating the current rate of global warming and worsening the effects of the ongoing climate crisis. Increased ship traffic in this region would bring with it greater localized greenhouse gas emissions and black carbon deposition on ice, which would cause Arctic ice to melt even more quickly.

Environmental and Ecological Destruction

The Arctic’s ecosystems face unprecedented disruptions and damage if maritime traffic increases in the following ways:

• Risk of oil spills. The potential for oil spills from ships transporting fossil fuels from or through the Arctic poses a severe threat to the region’s delicate ecosystems. In such a remote, dangerous, and otherwise logistically challenging environment, addressing oil spills is significantly more difficult than elsewhere, heightening the risk of unmitigated or poorly mitigated long-term environmental damage.

• Habitat disturbance and noise pollution. The surge in shipping traffic would disrupt marine life, particularly noise-sensitive species like whales. The increased noise interferes with their communication, navigation, and feeding behaviors, leading to broader ecological imbalances.
• Loss of ice necessary for species survival. The continued loss of sea ice, which is already occurring at an alarming rate and would be further hastened by localized carbon emissions from ships, would endanger not only global temperatures, but the region’s wildlife and ecosystems. Many species rely on the ice as a habitat and breeding grounds as well as for hunting. Whales, polar bears, seals, walruses, and many other species may become extinct or at risk of extinction.

• Introduction of invasive species. Increased shipping traffic raises the likelihood of invasive species being transported into the Arctic waters, potentially disrupting local marine ecosystems and threatening native species’ survival.

Social and Cultural Impact

The transformation of the Arctic as it would stem from new shipping routes has profound and harmful implications for indigenous and other local communities:

• Economic opportunities and challenges. While new shipping lanes may bring some economic opportunities to Arctic communities, they would also present challenges. This is likely to be the case if indigenous people and other locals aren’t treated respectfully or compensated fairly.  

• Access to resources and services. Improved shipping routes could enhance access to resources and services for remote Arctic communities, potentially improving living standards. However, this increased accessibility may also lead to over-exploitation of natural resources and increased foreign influence in the region.

• Cultural heritage and preservation. The influx of global shipping activities and the resultant environmental changes could threaten the cultural heritage of indigenous people, disrupting traditional practices like fishing, hunting, and herding. The arrival and presence of non-natives could also result in the marginalization and loss of native languages.

• Infrastructure and investment. The need for improved infrastructure to support increased shipping activity could drive investment in remote regions, but it also raises concerns about sustainable development and the environmental impact of construction in these fragile ecosystems. This is important because Arctic residents, too, depend on and are part of these ecosystems.

What You Can Do

You can help protect critical Arctic sea ice, the health of our climate, and Arctic wildlife from the hazards of increased shipping and other maritime traffic by doing the following:

• Educating yourself and others about the realities of the current climate crisis and viable climate intervention strategies

• Reducing your own use of fossil fuels, which are the biggest drivers of the climate crisis

• Voting for legislation, leaders, and politicians committed to protecting the Arctic from exploitation and addressing the climate crisis

• Supporting nonprofit organizations that work directly in the climate intervention sector

Protect Arctic Sea Ice With Arctic Ice Project

Arctic Ice Project’s efforts are crucial to the protection of Arctic sea ice. Our team is developing reflective materials and strategies to increase the albedo of this precious ice, mimicking natural processes to reflect solar energy out of our atmosphere and restore the Arctic.

You can do your part in this critical fight by donating to AIP. With your donation of cash, stocks, bonds, or your opening of a DAF, you can help ensure that Arctic sea life and humanity on our planet not only see a tomorrow, but see a brighter one. No donation is too small! 

If you are not able to make a financial contribution, you can still share the message and inspire others to act through social media and by staying informed on climate projects. Contact us today for other ways to help!